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Predictably predictable predictions 2020
January 16, 2020
Predictions, predictions, predictions. It’s that time of the year again. Everyone has one.
Let’s face it, though, we’re not all Mystic Meg but this shouldn’t stop us thinking about what’s ahead of us. If you’re not thinking, you’re not preparing.
Here are my three key predictions for 2020.
Brand purpose edging up the CMO’s priority list
Brand purpose is what you believe, do and say that’s beyond simply making profit. Businesses sell two things: the product and themselves. If you get these two things right, you’ll win the hearts of increasingly purpose-minded customers in the 21st Century.
But what is the ‘business self’? Much like with humans, for some it’s clear (Greenpeace = environmental activism) but for many, it’s much less so (automotive brands = ownership or mobility?).
There’s been much soul-searching among businesses during the 2010s about what they stand for, and I reckon this will continue into 2020. The smart ones know you can make profit and have purpose and will start really telling that story.
One thing’s for sure, purpose isn’t going anywhere soon. It’ll affect every aspect of a business – from advertising campaigns to product design. And it’ll affect every business in the supply-chain, from FMCG brand right down to the media agency delivering the advertising strategy.
We’ll still be talking about the death of the high street, but it’ll still be here
“Retail Apocalypse”, “High street has its worst [insert month] in [insert timeframe]”, and “high street struggles” are familiar headlines and recent years have seen the loss of high street brands like Toys ‘R’ US and Mothercare.
Retail figures remain gloomy, but could that gloom lift in 2020?
The government has committed to doing what it can to rejuvenate it with investment and tailored expert support and the high street is helping drive the regeneration of towns like Margate of Folkestone.
UK online retail sales at the end of last year were still under 20% of all retail sales – so stores still reign supreme. And as Forbes recently noted, Walmart has a trump card to play on disruptor-in-chief Amazon: its near-5000 stores are within 10 miles of 90% of Americans all of which can be used as same-day distribution centres, something ecommerce Amazon cannot compete with.
Reports of its death could be premature. It’s just going to require reimagination, reinvention and reframing. Easier said than done. But certainly doable.
Podcasting will come under greater scrutiny, brands must prepare
Listening to podcasts is a welcome break for a London commuter weaving in and out of one crowded train to another all the while avoiding fellow commuters’ armpits. My choices are The Football Ramble and 99% Invisible, an excellent podcast devoted to niche design and architecture stories.
For brands, there remains much work to be done on how to optimise this medium. Around 7.1m people listen to podcasts weekly in the UK. But as Spotify’s own data highlights, the majority of listenership is coming straight from… you guessed it, the London Bubble.
Meanwhile, the main players in the podcast hosting space like Apple are withholding data about listenership which leaves it difficult to know just how many downloads are actually listened to.
Be that as it may, these are issues that adland will no doubt iron out in time. Nor is podcasting is likely to go anywhere anytime soon.
For me, the biggest challenge is not in targeting but in the lack of regulation podcasts are being subjected to. While that gives free reign right now, it’s only a matter of time until podcast advertising will be subjected to similar standards as Radio or TV.
As Benjamin Franklin famously said, “failing to prepare is preparing to fail”. Brands and agencies take heed.
Only time will tell if my own Crystal Ball showed me the pathway to the year ahead or thrown mud over my eyes. That’s the excitement of a prediction.
Michael Phillips